The Royal Express Encounter: My two cents on the PBA Finals.

I originally posted this here

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Procrastinating over. Let’s get back to work.

Air 21 vs Ginebra. Two teams that thrives on energy, on fastbreak and lives and dies on turnovers. Well, if that’s the case, then get ready for an up and down, fast paced and run and gun finals. Now the question is, will Air 21 deliver? or will we see another royal run from the Kings? Here’s my personal take on the match ups and the what’s what in this finals.

The Backcourt Battle

Jayjay Helterbrand vs Wynne Arboleda and Mark Caguioa vs Gary David. Two very intriguing matches. Of course, the Fast and the Furious would be advantageous on paper, especially with what they’ve done this conference but Arboleda and David are no pushovers and they can definitely give the Kings a tough tough challenge. IMO, Caguioa is a tougher cover than David because he can create better situations for himself (It’s not like Gary D can’t create, but Mark simply does it better) while on the other hand, David has been relying on moving without the ball, running for fastbreak layups and set up threes.

The main question in the point guard battle would be on how Wynne Arboleda can control Jayjay’s numbers. Right now, Jayjay Helterbrand is the best point guard in the league. He dominates the game with his crisp passes and timely jumpers, that’s why he’s a tough tough cover. On the other hand, Wynne Arboleda is one of the best defensive point guards in the league today. Named part of the All Defensive Team last year, Wynne’s main task would be to limit Helterbrand’s numbers and prevent him from taking over the game.

The backcourt of the Kings wouldn’t be complete without Paul Artadi of course. Artadi has been a relevation for Ginebra in their last couple of games. Ever since the Sta.Lucia series, Artadi has been averaging 10.5 PPG, 5.5 APG and 2.5 APG. Those numbers alone are better than what any starting point guard (Minus Helterbrand) has produced for their team in the semi finals. Now, if Artadi continues to play that way.. the richest guy in the PBA would have to double his numbers.

With that being said, I give the backcourt advantage to the Kings.

Shootout on the wings

Air 21 has VERY TALL wingmen. Led by MVP Candidate Arwind Santos, Ranidel de Ocampo and Nino Canaleta, look for Air 21 to get much of their point productions from their wingmen. Ginebra’s wingmen on the other hand has experience on their side. Junthy Valenzuela and Sunday Salvacion are tough covers, especially when it comes to crucial stretches. Remember Sunday’s barrage of triples against San Miguel when they last won a Championship? That’s what I’m talking about.

However, advantage goes to Air 21 when it comes to the wing department. Let’s just say that Ginebra’s offensive focus comes from their guards and their import while Air 21 heavily relies on Arwind Santos and Ranidel de Ocampo when it comes to produtions. Ranidel is a tough tough match up for anyone, ask the Double Dannys of Magnolia. He can post you up, take you off the dribble and shoot three’s on you. He can also draw the defenders and drop off to Homer Se or Steve Thomas. In this series, he can be Ginebra’s biggest problem.

The Inside Grind

Steve Thomas vs Chris Alexander. Two of the best reinforcements we’ve had in this conference. Thomas is an inside operator who has a variety of post moves. However, he hasn’t showed up his former self eversince the start of the Semi Finals. Alexander however, is someone who’s.. let’s just say, more relaxed. Why? Because he doesn’t carry the offensive load of his team unlike all the other imports in the league. His scoring mostly comes off putbacks and drop passes from the guards and rarely do I see him create a shot of his own from the post.

In the local department, Air 21 will be led by their own Semi Final revelation Homer Se. However, he definitely needs help from guys like Kramer, Espinas and Sotto to control the board dominance of Reavis, Mamaril, Menk and Crisano.

With that being said, advantage goes to Ginebra here based on the fact that their import, Chris Alexander, doesn’t carry the same amount of pressure Steve Thomas carries in Air 21.

The Intangibles

Advantage goes to Ginebra. Ginebra is coming off a sweep of Red Bull and hasn’t tasted defeat in months. While Air 21 is coming off a tough 6 game victory against Magnolia. Another thing, Air 21 will be playing against Ginebra in a 7 game series.. that would be like the Lakers playing in Boston for 7 freakin’ games. Bo Perasol even said it, it’s Air 21 vs the Philippines.

The X Factors

For Ginebra, it’s Paul Artadi. If the Semis and the Quarters would be any indications on how Paul will play in the Finals then I expect a rough rough stretch for Air 21 in the upcoming games. Here’s a bet, I say everytime Paul Artadi makes a three pointer.. Ginebra will win. Anyone interested?

For Air 21, Homer Se. Homer has been a monster in the Magnolia series. Homer averaged 13.8 PPG and 6.8 RPG against the frontline of Magnolia. If Paul Artadi is the main energizer of Ginebra’s backcourt, then Air 21 would have an answer inside if Homer Se is in the game. Consistency would be the key for Air 21’s success.

The verdict

Should be a very interesting and exciting series. Air 21 should give Ginebra problems at times but I see them pulling it off based on experience alone. I say Ginebra in 6 exciting games.